Forecasting accuracy!

As you may recall, in the Park Pride Visioning sessions in 2012 to discuss the impact of connected trails through Morningside Lenox Park, neighbors identified several sources of potential negative consequences. Research was prepared around all of those issues and brought to the Visioning Sessions for discussion. The principle areas of predicted negative impact were Ecosystems, Environment, Quality of Life, and Safety.

With regard to safety, the research we found indicated that increased trails were associated with increased crime and that a primary mechanism for this increase was via permeability. Permeability has to do with the degree to which a neighborhood is easily accessible to non-residents as well as the volume of non-residents circulating in the neighborhood in any given time period. The higher the volume of non-neighbor circulation in the neighborhood and the greater the number of points of ingress and egress to a neighborhood, the higher the associated crime rates. More trails means more permeability.

Based on that research we forecast that any established residential areas opened up via new trails would experience an increase in crime. We made this forecast in the Park Pride sessions and in presentations to the City, to DeKalb County and to the MLPA.

South Fork Conservancy rejected all research predicting negative impacts on ecosystems, environment, quality of life, and crime (safety?), indicating that they would proceed with building connected trails regardless of neighborhood concerns and research evidence.

The one geographical location where South Fork did not receive strong pushback was at the confluence area around the western end of Lindridge Martin Manor where it abuts I-85. Using mitigation funding from the Department of Transportation, South Fork Conservancy built two trails in the confluence area, adjacent to the Lindridge Martin Manor neighborhood.

It now appears that there has been a sharp spike in rates of crime in Lindridge Martin Manor subsequent to the opening of the new trails, a spike that exceeds the crime levels in surrounding neighborhoods. This issue is now in front of APD’s Zone 2 to try and figure out how to address. There are no ready and apparent solutions.

It is regrettable that neighbors in Lindridge Martin Manor are bearing these difficult consequences. We advocated many times to Park Pride, to South Fork Conservancy, to the City Department of Parks, and to DeKalb County that all decisions around trails ought to be guided, not by good intentions and persuasive advocacy, but by evidence-based decision-making. It was such an approach that led us to forecast that there would be an increase in crime wherever the trails might be built. The subsequent crime increase at Lindridge Martin Manor validates our evidence-based approach. Our research and forecasts were accurate. We must continue to bring these facts to the attention of decision-makers to ensure that other neighborhoods do not bear similar consequences as a result of connected trails.